PROTON PREDICTION MODEL
              ***********************



Solar event at  22 S   39 W
Event reference time is  1983 APR 25  at  2.5 Hours UT

Solar wind speed =  450  km/sec

8800 MHz Semi-Integrated Flux (Start to Peak) = 2.2E+07 SFU-s
Castelli-U Omega Ratio (W3/W2) =  5.9 



              *** Fast Prediction Parameters ***
                (At Geosynchronous Orbit)

Proton Energy Onset         Maximum       Peak flux >E  Decay Constant
   E (MeV)    Time(hrs)     Time(hrs)        (PFU)         (hours)

     100         1.4           2.3                0          17.8
      50         1.5           2.6                2          18.3
      20         1.7           3.1               18          18.8
      10         2.0           3.8               82          19.0
       5         2.5           4.7              331          19.2
       2         3.3           6.6             1889          19.4
       1         4.2           8.7             6606          19.5



              *** Proton Event History ***

Time after ----------------Proton Flux (PFU)----------------   30MHz Riometer
event(hrs) >100MeV >50MeV >20MeV >10Mev  >5MeV  >2Mev  >1MeV   A(dB)/d A(dB)/n

     2           0      0      1      1      1      1      1     0.7     0.3
     3           0      1     11     43     78     79     79     5.3     2.2
     4           0      1     11     64    268    537    537     9.8     5.8
     5           0      1     10     61    326   1629   1729    10.8    10.1
     6           0      1     10     57    309   2481   5222    10.6    12.5
     7           0      1      9     54    294   2757   9629    10.3    13.1
     8           0      1      9     52    279   2618  13195    10.0    12.8
     9           0      1      8     49    264   2486  15156     9.8    12.5
    10           0      1      8     46    251   2361  14397     9.5    12.1
    11           0      1      7     44    238   2242  13677     9.3    11.8
    12           0      1      7     42    226   2129  12992     9.0    11.5
    13           0      0      7     40    215   2022  12342     8.8    11.2
    14           0      0      6     38    204   1920  11725     8.6    11.0
    15           0      0      6     36    193   1823  11138     8.3    10.7
    16           0      0      6     34    183   1732  10581     8.1    10.4
    17           0      0      5     32    174   1644  10051     7.9    10.1
    18           0      0      5     30    165   1562   9548     7.7     9.9
    19           0      0      5     29    157   1483   9070     7.5     9.6
    20           0      0      5     27    149   1408   8617     7.3     9.4
    21           0      0      4     26    141   1337   8185     7.1     9.1
    22           0      0      4     25    134   1270   7776     6.9     8.9
    23           0      0      4     23    127   1206   7387     6.8     8.7
    24           0      0      4     22    121   1145   7017     6.6     8.5
    25           0      0      4     21    115   1088   6666     6.4     8.2
    26           0      0      3     20    109   1033   6332     6.3     8.0
    27           0      0      3     19    103    981   6015     6.1     7.8
    28           0      0      3     18     98    932   5714     5.9     7.6
    29           0      0      3     17     93    885   5429     5.8     7.4
    30           0      0      3     16     88    840   5157     5.6     7.2
    31           0      0      3     15     84    798   4899     5.5     7.1
    32           0      0      2     14     79    758   4654     5.3     6.9
    33           0      0      2     14     75    720   4421     5.2     6.7
    34           0      0      2     13     72    683   4200     5.1     6.5
    35           0      0      2     12     68    649   3989     4.9     6.4
    36           0      0      2     12     64    616   3790     4.8     6.2
    37           0      0      2     11     61    585   3600     4.7     6.0
    38           0      0      2     11     58    556   3420     4.6     5.9
    39           0      0      2     10     55    528   3249     4.5     5.7
    40           0      0      2      9     52    501   3086     4.3     5.6
    41           0      0      1      9     50    476   2932     4.2     5.5
    42           0      0      1      9     47    452   2785     4.1     5.3
    43           0      0      1      8     45    429   2646     4.0     5.2
    44           0      0      1      8     42    408   2513     3.9     5.0
    45           0      0      1      7     40    387   2388     3.8     4.9
    46           0      0      1      7     38    368   2268     3.7     4.8
    47           0      0      1      7     36    349   2155     3.6     4.7
    48           0      0      1      6     34    332   2047     3.5     4.6
    49           0      0      1      6     33    315   1944     3.4     4.4
    50           0      0      1      6     31    299   1847     3.3     4.3